Brazil is set to return to the group of the world's eight largest economies in 2027, according to projections in the World Economic Outlook published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Brazilian gross domestic product would rise from US$2.655 trillion in 2026, which places the country 10th, to US$2.80 trillion the following year — about R$14.65 trillion — enough to move past Italy and Russia.
It would be the first time Brazil holds eighth place since 2017. The Fund projects the country in that same position through 2031, the final year of the report's horizon.
The ranking projected for 2027
By the IMF's numbers, the ten largest economies in 2027 line up as follows:
- United States — US$34.44 trillion
- China — US$22.94 trillion
- Germany — US$5.66 trillion
- India — US$4.52 trillion
- United Kingdom — US$4.49 trillion
- Japan — US$4.47 trillion
- France — US$3.65 trillion
- Brazil — US$2.80 trillion
- Italy — US$2.77 trillion
- Russia — US$2.68 trillion
The gap between Brazil and Italy in the projection is US$30 billion, a little over 1% of Brazilian GDP — narrow enough that a revision of the report could swap the two places.
India is the biggest climber
The strongest move in the table is not Brazil's. India goes from 6th to 4th place in 2027, ahead of the United Kingdom and Japan, and on the Fund's projections takes third place in 2031, overtaking Germany. The United States and China hold the top two spots throughout the projected period.
What the number measures
Brazil's best-ever standing was seventh, in 1995 and again from 2010 to 2014. One methodological note helps read the projection without stretching it: the IMF ranking is built from nominal GDP converted into current dollars. A country's position therefore moves with the exchange rate and with dollar inflation, not only with real growth in its economy — which is why a two-place climb can sit alongside modest growth.
With information from Agência Brasil and CartaCapital, drawing on the IMF's World Economic Outlook.
