Kyiv's request
European Union leaders wrapped up the 15–16 October European Council in Brussels on Friday without settling the bill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy brought to the table. Zelenskyy asked for an additional €70 billion for 2027 and said the war would cost €155 billion next year.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she considered the Ukrainian estimate accurate, but warned that the bloc does not intend to cover it alone — other Western allies, she said, should take on a share. The heads of government asked the Commission to put forward options to close the gap, and commissioned an updated assessment, by the Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), of Ukraine's financing and military needs.
What is already committed
The request comes on top of the €90 billion loan approved in December 2025 to cover 2026 and 2027. When it was agreed, the package was estimated to cover about two thirds of Ukraine's needs: it was never designed as a complete solution. The Commission expects to disburse €45 billion next year, plus residual funds.
The summit conclusions also record the release of €6.6 billion under the European Peace Facility, the extension and revision of the EU military assistance mission (EUMAM Ukraine) and the creation of an integrated anti-ballistic missile coalition. On defence, leaders backed the Eastern Flank Watch project, called for a counter-drone action plan and set an end-2026 deadline for the Council and Parliament to agree the military mobility proposal.
The €210 billion nobody will unlock
Around €210 billion belonging to Russia's central bank is immobilised in Europe, according to the proposal the European Commission presented in December 2025. Most of it sits at Euroclear in Belgium — and that is exactly where the discussion stalls.
In October 2025, European leaders went as far as designing an interest-free "reparations loan" of €140 billion backed by those assets: Ukraine would repay only if Russia compensated it for war damage. The mechanism was judged unworkable on 19 December 2025, mainly because of Belgian resistance, and the €90 billion loan — financed by the bloc's own borrowing — took its place. A week earlier, on 12 December, member states had already decided to keep the assets frozen indefinitely.
At this summit the subject returned, and the map of positions had not changed. Belgium, which holds most of the money, remains opposed because of the legal and financial risk that would fall on it. France and Italy are reluctant. Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, the Nordics and the Baltics favour using the assets. Ireland said it was open to the idea but recalled that the previous attempt failed. Denmark's prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, called the assets one of the best options available, and Zelenskyy urged Europe to use them before Moscow manages to claim them back. There was no decision.
The arithmetic helps explain the deadlock: the €210 billion immobilised is three times the €70 billion requested for 2027. What is holding up the conversation is not the size of the sum, but who carries the risk of touching it.
Sanctions
Leaders welcomed the 21st sanctions package and new listings bringing close to 1,600 individuals and entities onto the restrictive lists, and called for measures to cut Russia's energy revenues and act against the so-called shadow fleet of tankers. The summit also backed the creation of an international claims commission and a special tribunal for the crime of aggression.
"We will not lift any sanctions unless Russia stops the war," von der Leyen said. European Council President António Costa took the same line: "This is no time to relieve Russia's sanctions."
Enlargement
The conclusions welcomed the opening of negotiating clusters 2 and 3 for Ukraine and Moldova at the accession conferences of 13 October, and called for the remaining clusters to open as soon as possible. On Montenegro, leaders noted progress on the accession treaty and the Council presidency's aim of provisionally closing the remaining chapters, subject to the country's reforms. The text describes enlargement as a "geostrategic investment" and calls for internal EU reforms before any further accessions.
Migration and budget, unresolved
Migration came up only as a strategic discussion, with no operational conclusions. Denmark, Italy and Poland pushed for tougher language; the more expansive draft, which warned against measures liable to create incentives for irregular migration, was rejected, and a shorter text was adopted instead. Leaders also discussed a crisis mechanism for asylum, and the Commission is preparing an emergency protocol.
"We had a bad debate," French President Emmanuel Macron said, adding that the division pushes countries towards national solutions — which, in his view, do not work.
The 2028–2034 multiannual budget also ended without agreement. Leaders discussed the elements of a compromise based on the updated negotiating box presented by the Irish presidency and asked Costa to steer the talks, aiming to conclude by the end of 2026. Sweden's prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, rejected an increase of around 60% in the Swedish national contribution.
With information from the European Council, Euronews and Interfax-Ukraine.
