The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecasts for Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economic Outlook released on 13 October, during the Fund's Annual Meetings in Bangkok.
The region is now projected to grow 2.3% in 2026, a tenth of a percentage point less than in the July estimate and below the 2.5% recorded in 2025. For 2027 the projection is 2.5%, two tenths below the previous forecast. The regional downgrade runs against the global picture: the Fund raised its 2026 world growth forecast by a tenth, to 3.1%.
Country by country
| Country | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 5% | 7% |
| Paraguay | 4.5% | 4% |
| Peru | 3% | 2.9% |
| Brazil | 2.2% | 1.9% |
| Argentina | 2.1% | 3.5% |
| Mexico | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Chile | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| Bolivia | -3% | -1.5% |
Bolivia is the most severe case: the Fund projects a 3% contraction this year and 1.5% in 2027, after a decline of about 1.6% in 2025. It is the only economy in the region the IMF sees shrinking in both years.
Argentina took the region's deepest cut. The Fund lowered its 2026 forecast from 3.5% to 2.1%, against the 4.5% the country grew in 2025, and its 2027 forecast from 4% to 3.5%. Inflation, by contrast, is projected to fall to 32.5% this year from 41.9% in 2025.
Brazil's forecast was trimmed to 2.2% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with the slowdown attributed to restrictive monetary policy, the withdrawal of fiscal support and global uncertainty.
Mexico was the one upgrade: its 2026 forecast rose from 1.2% to 1.5%, driven by exports — including those tied to artificial-intelligence supply chains — and by stabilising investment. The 2027 figure was trimmed a tenth, to 1.8%.
Chile shows the sharpest braking among the larger economies: 0.6% in 2026, far below the 2.5% of 2025, with a recovery to 2.6% only in 2027.
In Venezuela, where the Fund projects the region's fastest growth, inflation is expected to climb to 467.9% from 252%.
Why the Fund lowered its forecast
The IMF attributes the regional adjustment to two factors. The first is the energy shock stemming from the war in the Middle East: Brent crude remains around 45% above its pre-war level, a rise that weighs on the region's net energy importers.
The second is the absence of any technological offset. The report notes there is "little offset from the technology upturn in most countries" — meaning the artificial-intelligence investment cycle sustaining growth in other economies is barely reaching Latin America. Mexico, with its exports linked to those supply chains, is the exception that proves the rule.
The risks
The Fund warns that risks to the region are tilted to the downside. It points in particular to the possibility of market turmoil that would raise governments' borrowing costs, pressure local currencies and tighten domestic financial conditions.
With information from Reuters and Infobae, on the IMF's World Economic Outlook.
