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Brazil's final presidential debate is set for Friday, two days before a runoff PoderData puts at 51% to 49%

Both campaigns signed the terms on October 19; Lula made his attendance conditional on waiving bank, tax and phone confidentiality for both candidates and their families

The UE2020 electronic voting machine, presented by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral in 2021; the runoff is on Sunday.
The UE2020 electronic voting machine, presented by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral in 2021; the runoff is on Sunday.Photo: Antonio Augusto/Secom/TSE, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain

The last debate between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) before Brazil's presidential runoff is set for 9.20pm on Friday (23) on TV Globo, straight after the network's main evening newscast, Jornal Nacional. Brazilians vote on Sunday (25).

The moderator is journalist César Tralli, with simultaneous broadcast on GloboNews and the g1 news portal.

How the debate was designed

The rules were made public on October 19, after both campaigns signed the atas, the minutes setting out the programme's terms. The format has three blocks:

  • Regions: Brazil's five regions are drawn by lot and, in each round, the candidate drawn puts a question to his opponent about that region, until all five are covered.
  • Chosen themes: each candidate picks six of ten subjects set by the network's production team, among them the Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS, Brazil's public health system) and full-time schooling.
  • Open themes: the candidates raise whatever they like.

The programme closes with final statements. Network and campaigns may still agree adjustments before air.

The condition Lula set

On October 20, Lula said he would only take part if his opponent authorised the waiving of bank, tax and phone confidentiality for both candidates and their families. "If he produces a document authorising the waiver, there will be a debate," he said.

The next day, Senator Camilo Santana (PT) said Lula accepts the conditions Flávio Bolsonaro had presented for releasing the data.

Brazil's Lei das Eleições (Elections Law) does not require a candidate to attend a debate. Broadcasters must invite contenders from parties or coalitions holding at least five federal deputies, and a programme may air without an invitee if the station can show the invitation was sent at least 72 hours in advance.

Six weeks of debates that did not happen

Friday's meeting is the second of the runoff. On October 18, on Band, in São Paulo, the two faced each other directly for the first time since the first round, in blocks on the economy, public security, health and corruption.

Before that came a run of cancellations: the October 1 debate on Globo did not take place — Lula had already decided not to attend, and Flávio Bolsonaro pulled out hours before broadcast, calling decisions by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE, Brazil's top electoral court) that changed the programme's rules "censorship". Debates scheduled for September 14 and September 23 also fell through for lack of confirmations.

Two points apart

In the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% of valid votes and Lula 45.16% — a gap of more than 2.2 million votes.

A PoderData poll released on October 22 puts Flávio Bolsonaro on 51% and Lula on 49% of valid votes. It surveyed 4,000 people between October 19 and 22, with a margin of error of 1.6 percentage points and a 95% confidence level; its registration with the TSE is BR-07926/2026.

Rejection is close to symmetrical: 47% of respondents say they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances, and 45% say the same of Flávio Bolsonaro. With the gap inside a narrow band and rejection balanced on both sides, the debate is the last occasion on which both names address the same audience before the vote — the deadline for rallies and campaign events expired on Thursday (22).

With information from O Povo, Gazeta do Povo, Agência Brasil and Diário do Grande ABC.