Brazilian industry produced 0.8% less in September than in August, according to the Pesquisa Industrial Mensal (Monthly Industrial Survey) released by the IBGE (Brazil's national statistics institute) on Thursday (5). It is the fourth decline in the last five months, and a worse result than the median of market forecasts, which pointed to a 0.4% drop.
Compared with September 2025, output fell 2.5% — the sharpest retreat on that basis since March 2024, when the index dropped 2.9%. The IBGE attributes part of the gap to one fewer working day in the month and to a high base of comparison: in September last year, industry had grown 2%.
Losses spread across the factory floor
What stands out in the figures is not only the size of the fall but how widely it spread. Of the 25 activities surveyed, 17 declined. Among the four broad economic categories, three ended in the red:
- capital goods: -1.9%
- semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods: -1.2%
- intermediate goods: -0.7%
- durable consumer goods: +0.7%, the only gain
The biggest negative contribution came from coke, petroleum products and biofuels, down 4.2%. Food manufacturing fell 1.7%, driven by lower ethanol and sugar output, which the institute links to reduced sugarcane processing after heavier rainfall. Motor vehicles, trailers and bodywork fell 1.2%.
On the other side, extractive industries rose 1.7%, on higher output of crude oil, natural gas and iron ore, and were the month's main counterweight. Chemicals also advanced 1.7%, and tobacco products jumped 20.3%.
For IBGE analyst André Macedo, the month showed a "widespread pattern of negative rates", part of a "clear reduction in the magnitude of growth" in industry over the course of 2026.
The year is still positive, the half-year is not
The recent sequence explains what changed. After four months of gains at the start of the year, industry fell 1% in May, 1.6% in June, was flat in July, and dropped 0.7% in August and 0.8% in September. Together, those losses add up to 4.1% over five months and have already eaten much of the gain built up in the first four months.
The third quarter closed 1.4% below the same period of 2025. Output is still up 0.4% so far this year and 0.2% over 12 months. Production remains 16.5% below the series peak, reached in May 2011.
With information from the IBGE, Imirante and Metrópoles.
