The migrant returns deal between the United Kingdom and France, signed in July 2025 and known as "one in, one out", is coming to an end. Attempts to extend it did not succeed, and the French government wants to replace it with a scheme involving the whole European Union.
One or two removals remain before operations close.
What the deal delivered
The mechanics were simple on paper: for every person returned to France after crossing the English Channel in a small boat, the UK would accept one asylum seeker from France through a legal route.
The figures after a little over a year:
- around 1,400 people returned to France
- £56,000 average cost per removal
- 1,117 asylum seekers received by the UK through the legal route, up to the end of June 2026
British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood pointed to the operational bottleneck. "What has been more operationally difficult is to scale up very large numbers of removals every week into the French system," she said.
Crossings down, for other reasons
The deal ends in a year when crossing indicators have fallen — without the scheme's own numbers explaining the drop, given the modest volume of returns:
- small-boat crossings in the English Channel: -42% year on year
- irregular crossings at EU borders: -35% in a year
- arrests for organised immigration crime: +55%
That comparison is what makes the wind-down politically manageable for London: the most expensive instrument in the package is also the one that weighed least on the statistics.
Paris's alternative
The French Interior Ministry confirmed the exit is being negotiated. "We are discussing with the British the terms of exiting the agreement," it said.
The French position is that the problem cannot be solved bilaterally. A European scheme would spread the burden of receiving those returned across more countries — precisely the point that, on the British side, limited the scale of the current arrangement.
With information from The Independent, France's Interior Ministry and statements from the British Home Office.
