China closed the first ten months of 2026 with a trade surplus of $1.043 trillion, according to data released on Tuesday, 10 November, by the country's customs administration. It is the second consecutive year in which China's surplus passes the one-trillion-dollar mark before the year is out — and the pace points to a result above the 2025 record of $1.2 trillion.
The monthly figure, however, moved the other way. October's surplus fell to $105.3 billion, against $133.5 billion in September, and came in well below the market expectation of around $125.8 billion. The reason was not weak exports but strong imports.
Imports grew faster than exports
- Exports: $412.33 billion, up 35.2% year on year — slightly slower than September's 36.3%.
- Imports: $307.05 billion, up 41.6%, far above the roughly 32% analysts had projected.
Part of that jump in purchases abroad comes from a recovery in crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf, according to the Associated Press. On the sales side, two items drove the result: semiconductor exports rose 137.1% and car exports 37.6%.
By destination, sales to the United States grew 32.9% in October, though from a very low base of comparison depressed by the tariffs imposed in 2025. Exports to the European Union advanced 24.3% in the month and 17.2% in the year to date. Over the ten months, China's surplus was about $266.5 billion with the United States and more than $310 billion with the European bloc.
What the number says about China's economy
A surplus of that size is usually read as a sign of export strength. Economists interviewed by the Associated Press also read the other side: a balance that grows because domestic purchasing is not keeping up with installed capacity.
For Alicia García-Herrero, of the bank Natixis, the result combines excess production capacity, high domestic savings and weak internal demand. "The situation is not sustainable," she said.
Dave Chia, an economist at Moody's, expects exports to stay strong through the end of the year, led by electronics and cars, but points to one concentrated risk: a slowdown in the artificial-intelligence investment cycle would push down chip and electronics prices and shrink shipping volumes, which, in his words, "would hit China's exports hard".
The Chinese economy is still projected to meet the official growth target of 4.5% to 5% this year. On the trade front, a two-month extension of the tariff truce with the United States, running until January, has given exporters some relief; the subject is expected back on the table at a summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping scheduled for Shenzhen next week.
With information from China's General Administration of Customs, the Associated Press and Trading Economics.
