The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for world economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, 0.1 percentage point above its July estimate. For 2027 it projects 3.4%, unchanged from July and 0.2 point above what the Fund expected in April. Both figures sit below the 3.5% the global economy grew in 2025.
The numbers come from the World Economic Outlook, presented at the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, held this year in Bangkok, Thailand.
What is holding growth up: artificial intelligence
The upgrade does not come from a broad improvement, but from a single concentrated engine. Investment in artificial intelligence offsets part of the damage from energy prices — but the benefit is highly uneven: the United States and China account for more than three quarters of net global demand for AI-related chips and equipment.
The Fund itself measures that concentration with an uncomfortable figure: 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, against 54 countries in April. The fewer the economies pulling the result, the more fragile the result — and the projection already assumes AI demand moderates.
"The outlook is highly uneven," said Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's chief economist, at the news conference presenting the report.
The oil shock
The other half of the story is the price of energy. The Fund works with oil averaging $96 a barrel in 2026 and $87 in 2027 — a rise of about 41% this year. Consumer inflation worldwide is expected at 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, easing back to 4.1% in 2027.
The projection carries a war assumption: the IMF assumes the Strait of Hormuz resumes oil and gas shipments in March 2027, with a broad return to pre-war shipping flows by October of that year. It is the assumption that weighs most on the scenario — and the first to collapse if the conflict in the Middle East drags on.
Who grows and who shrinks
- Advanced economies: 2.1% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027
- Emerging and developing economies: 3.7% in 2026, against 4.5% in 2025, recovering to 4.4% in 2027
- United States: 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027
- Euro area: 1.1% in 2026 (up from 0.9%, driven by AI and defence spending) and 1.2% in 2027
- China: 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, both 0.1 point below July
- India: around 7% in both years, a 0.6-point upgrade for 2026 — the fastest-growing major economy
- United Kingdom: 1.3% in 2026, 0.3 point above July
- Saudi Arabia: a contraction of 3.3% in 2026, against the 1.7% expansion projected in July
- Middle East and Central Asia: contraction in 2026 and growth of 6.3% in 2027
Debt as the risk
The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, again pointed to public indebtedness — above all in advanced economies — as a growing threat to financial stability, in an environment of high borrowing costs. The Fund is asking governments to rebuild their fiscal buffers and present credible medium-term debt plans.
In an adverse scenario, with the barrel at $130 through the first quarter of 2027, global growth would fall 0.2 point in 2026 and 0.5 point in 2027, and 2027 inflation would rise to 5.2%.
Georgieva also addressed AI's effect on work: she estimated that about 40% of jobs will be augmented, downgraded or eliminated by the technology, and described the shift as "a slow moving tsunami, but tsunami nonetheless".
With information from the Associated Press, Reuters and the Report news agency.
