Of everything the Trump administration wanted from Brazil's election, the clearest was mineral rights. Brazil sits on the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth elements, the metals that go into magnets, electric motors, wind turbines and guided weapons, and the United States has spent two years looking for any supply chain that does not run through China.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's victory in the October 25 runoff over Flávio Bolsonaro does not close that door. But it replaces a shortcut with a negotiation.
What was on offer, and from whom
A State Department official has said Trump wanted preferential access to Brazil's rare earths. After meeting Trump in May, Flávio Bolsonaro promised a "long-term strategic partnership" over the deposits — the kind of commitment analysts read as a fast track for American capital into Brazilian mines.
The pressure on Brazil had already taken sharper forms. Trump used tariffs and sanctions to try to force Brazil to drop the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro, who is now serving 27 years for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Flávio, for his part, left Brazil after the election despite a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports; the United States offered him safe harbor, and he describes the case against him as a "politically motivated witch hunt."
A White House spokesperson, Matthew Middleton, said diversifying the American minerals supply chain serves both countries.
The council Lula created first
About two weeks before the first round, Lula signed the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals. It created the Conselho Nacional para a Industrialização de Minerais Críticos e Estratégicos (CIMCE, the National Council for the Industrialization of Critical and Strategic Minerals), presided over by the Casa Civil (the Chief of Staff's Office).
At its first meeting, which Lula attended, the council placed 27 minerals under its remit and classified rare earths as "high priority." Two of its powers matter most to a foreign investor: CIMCE can ratify changes of corporate control at companies holding critical mineral rights, and it can approve international contracts tied to what the policy calls economic or geopolitical security.
The council's stated preference is for rare earths to be processed in Brazil rather than shipped out as ore. American investment is still welcome under that condition. Analysts had expected Flávio Bolsonaro to scrap CIMCE if he won; Lula's win means the rules governing investment incentives and the classification of priority projects will now be written, and the government aims to present them in the first months of 2027.
That is the real delay. Lula's new term begins on January 5, 2027, and the framework that decides what an American project may and may not do is scheduled to arrive after it.
"We need to acquire the technology first"
Inside the council, the argument is about value, not about keeping anyone out. Marco Lage, who represents mining municipalities on CIMCE, pressed the case for producing and refining domestically, noting that China has been doing exactly that for thirty years. Eracy Lafuente, a council member and chief of staff to the governor of Bahia, said Brazil wants foreign investors to process, refine and share technology locally, and added that the United States "will not be sidelined."
The industry is less certain the timetable works. Ramon Barua, chief executive of Aclara Resources, which is developing a rare earth mine in Goiás state, welcomed the changes but said rapid separation of the elements inside Brazil is not realistic yet: "We need to acquire the technology first." He read the law as incentivizing investment rather than compelling it. Gabriela Salazar, of the law firm Azevedo Sette Advogados, said her clients do not object to CIMCE or the policy and mainly want the rules spelled out.
There is a hard limit on how fast anything can move. Brazil has exactly one rare earth mine in commercial operation, Serra Verde, a project backed by the US government and bought by USA Rare Earth in September. It has run into technical problems and is not expected to reach full capacity before the end of 2027.
The tariffs still sitting on the table
The minerals question does not travel alone. Since July, Brazilian goods have carried a 25% Section 301 duty, in force from July 22, with a 12.5% forced-labour duty added on July 24. Coffee, beef, orange juice, aircraft parts and oil and gas products were left out.
Brazil says it expects a written tariff proposal from Washington this month. Trade Minister Márcio Elias Rosa has said Brazil will not make the first offer, since the tariffs originated in Washington, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has rejected Brazil's request to suspend them while talks continue. Brazilian reporting indicates the American side wants movement on big-tech regulation, industrial goods, electronics, chemicals, ethanol — and rare earths.
Which puts the minerals and the tariffs in the same file, on a desk that will not be fully staffed until January.
Reporting from Reuters and Rio Times Online.
