Mexico's economy grew 0.9% between July and September 2026 compared with the previous quarter, and 3.2% against the same period of 2025, according to the preliminary gross domestic product estimate published on 30 October by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI, Mexico's national statistics institute), in its indicator bulletin 673/26.
It is the third consecutive quarter of expansion and the highest annual rate since 2023, according to comparisons drawn by the Mexican financial press from the institute's own series.
The breakdown by sector
On seasonally adjusted figures, performance was uneven:
- Tertiary activities (trade and services): +1.1% on the quarter and +3.3% year on year.
- Secondary activities (industry, construction, mining and electricity): +0.8% on the quarter and +3.1% year on year.
- Primary activities (agriculture, livestock, fishing): -0.4% on the quarter and +1.8% year on year.
The primary sector is the only one to fall in the quarterly comparison, and it carries little weight in the aggregate: the quarter's strength comes from services, which are also the largest component of Mexican GDP.
Where the economy was coming from
The acceleration reads better against earlier quarters. Year on year, Mexican GDP had risen 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.1% in the second. In 2025 the year included two negative quarters — -0.1% in the second and -0.2% in the third — and closed at +1.7%. Full-year 2024 had been 1.5%.
That is the starting point that makes the 3.2% notable: not an economy in sustained boom, but one coming out of a stretch of stagnation.
What is still to be confirmed
Two caveats come with the number. The first is INEGI's own: the early estimate is preliminary and does not replace the traditional estimate, published with more detail weeks later. The bulletin sets the next release of the early series for 29 January 2027.
The second is external. In early October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected growth of 1.5% for the Mexican economy across 2026 and warned that external uncertainty continued to limit the expansion. With three quarters running above that path, the annual projection is open to revision — something only the fourth quarter's close will settle.
With information from INEGI, El Financiero and La Jornada.
