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US payrolls rise 165,000 in October, more than double forecasts, and put a December rate hike back in play

Unemployment edged down to 4.1%, hourly earnings are up 3.1% over 12 months, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs

The Eccles Building, home of the Federal Reserve Board, in Washington in 2011.
The Eccles Building, home of the Federal Reserve Board, in Washington in 2011.Photo: Federalreserve/Wikimedia Commons, Public domain

The United States added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, November 6, 2026 — more than double the roughly 70,000 economists had expected, and more than three times the average monthly gain of 48,000 recorded over the previous 12 months.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, with 7.1 million people counted as out of work.

Where the jobs were

Professional and business services led the month with 70,000 new positions, followed by health care with 42,000, transportation and warehousing with 25,000 and manufacturing with 19,000. Mining, construction, wholesale and retail trade, information, financial activities, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, other services and government all showed little change.

The concentration matters: four sectors accounted for essentially the whole gain, which is a narrower base than a headline of 165,000 suggests.

Two months revised up

The BLS also revised its two previous estimates. August went from 133,000 jobs to 186,000, a gain of 53,000, and September from 29,000 to 60,000, a gain of 31,000. Together the two months are 84,000 jobs higher than previously reported.

That revision carries weight beyond the arithmetic. September's original reading of 29,000 had been taken as evidence of a labor market running out of momentum; at 60,000 it reads instead as a soft month in an expansion that kept going.

Wages, and the inflation problem

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 14 cents, or 0.4%, to $38.00, and are up 3.1% over 12 months — above the 2.9% economists had penciled in. For production and nonsupervisory employees, earnings rose 12 cents to $32.75.

Wage growth above forecast is what turns a strong jobs number into a monetary-policy problem rather than simply good news.

A December increase back on the table

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at its most recent meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has described employment conditions as "quite positive" while pointing out that inflation has run above the central bank's target for nearly six years. "It's our responsibility to get inflation down," he said, in remarks reported by Yahoo Finance.

After Friday's figures, several economists quoted by Yahoo Finance said they now expect a 25-basis-point increase at the December meeting, while others argued the data show a labor market that is stable rather than overheating, and that wage measures remain the signal to watch.

The next Employment Situation report, covering November, is scheduled for Friday, December 4, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Reporting from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Yahoo Finance.