Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), the Partido Liberal candidate for Brazil's presidency, confirmed on Sunday (27) that he will take part in TV Globo's debate, scheduled for Thursday, 1 October, at 9.30pm — the last one before the first round on 4 October. "Vou ao debate da Globo. Eu quero ir para lá debater com ele" ("I'm going to the Globo debate. I want to go there and debate him"), he said, referring to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is running for re-election.
As of Sunday night, Lula's campaign had not confirmed his attendance. The broadcaster has not published its final list of participants either.
Three of the four debates have already collapsed
The first-round calendar shrank through September:
- 23 August, Band — held, without Lula, without Flávio Bolsonaro and without Romeu Zema (Novo).
- 14 September, SBT/RedeTV!/CNN Brasil — cancelled.
- 27 September, Record — cancelled once both front-runners confirmed they would not attend.
- 1 October, Globo — scheduled, with Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed.
If Lula stays away, the two candidates leading the polls will have gone through the entire first round without meeting in a studio.
The polling behind the calculation
The margin is narrow, which is what makes the decision to debate a live one. The Datafolha poll released last week, with interviews conducted on 22 and 23 September, put Lula on 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 36% in the first round, and 47% to 45% in a hypothetical run-off — a statistical tie in both scenarios. It surveyed 2,002 voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points, and is registered as BR-00304/2026 with the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (Superior Electoral Court).
Quaest's 21 September survey had Lula on 37% and Flávio Bolsonaro on 33% in the first round, and 42% to 41% in a run-off. The institute has announced a new round for Monday (28), with 2,004 interviews and the same 2-point margin.
With information from O Tempo, Gazeta do Povo, CartaCapital and Agência Brasil.
